Ruston, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

409
FXUS64 KSHV 152350 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
650 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New AVIATION/SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

 - A fast moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms are
   expected to push across the Ark-La-Tex this afternoon, where
   damaging wind, hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

 - Behind the front, sustained 15-25 mph winds, with gusts up to
   and exceeding 35-45 mph, are expected into Monday morning.

 - A cold and dry airmass will quickly move in tonight, resulting
   in overnight lows near and below freezing both Monday and
   Tuesday morning, with highs back to seasonal by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

An agitated cumulus field is unfolding across the Ark-La-Tex this
afternoon as our long awaited cold front, and associated severe
weather threat is quickly approaching. Upstream observations across
central Oklahoma and north Texas show peak non-convective wind gusts
over 50 mph. This front will continue to race east as it will
intercept an airmass with temperatures quickly warming into the
upper 70`s and low 80`s, with surface Td`s in the lower 60`s. Hourly
mesoanalysis across the region suggests that effective bulk shear
values are around 40kt, with a 45-50kt LLJ sitting overhead. Tucked
under the LLJ, sfc-1km SRH values are sitting between 100-200 m2/s2
with sfc-3km between 200-300 m2/s2. These values may decrease a tick
or two as the jet slides east over the next few hours, but that
being said, as the cold front enters the region, an environment
conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms will exist, where all
modes of severe weather will be possible, with tornado watches
likely this afternoon.

Though timing has been consistent across the hi-res and CAMs over
the last 12-24 hours, uncertainty still remains when it comes to
where thunderstorm initiation will occur. Output from the HRRR,
RRFS, and NAM continue to suggest that the boundary should remain
free of deeply rooted convection as it enters into McCurtain County,
OK. This will change as the front approaches the I-49 corridor where
dynamics will become more conducive to support deeply rooted
thunderstorms buying the cap erodes, supporting the
aforementioned hazards. The SHV 18z upper air balloon launch
reveals that 800mb temperatures sit between 17.5-18 deg C, thus
suggesting a cap remains in place. A 20z launch will help further
evaluate the cap as the boundary approaches. It is important to
note that while the local SPC tornado hazards sit on the lower end
of the scale across the central and eastern zones, if a
thunderstorm can become deeply rooted and mature as the cap
erodes, a tornado or two, potentially strong, can`t be ruled out.
At the same time, exceptionally strong lapse rates will support
large hail with initial semi-discrete development prior to later
QLCS formation where a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat
will become the dominate hazards. This axis of convection will
quickly race east along the front, with the latest timing analysis
suggesting the front should exit the region around or shortly
after 10pm.

Behind the front, and similar to what is being experienced ahead of
the boundary, gusty northwesterly winds will continue across the Ark-
La-Tex through the overnight where wind gusts between 40-45 mph will
be possible. Already, Shreveport Regional Airport has peaked with a
46 mph non-thunderstorm gradient based wind gust ahead of the
boundary. This may result in brief power outages, along with the
displacement of unsecured or loose items outdoors. At the same time,
a strong airmass will filter in, quickly dropping temperatures
overnight locally into the 20`s and 30`s. As a result, a Freeze
Warning remains in effect across portions of northeast Texas,
southwest Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma. Expect for another
Freeze Warning to be issued for Tuesday morning with the evening
forecast package as Tuesday AM temperatures will sit at or below
freezing for most if not all. This will be an extremely dry
airmass that will settle in to start the new week, with RH
percentages in the upper teens and low 20`s and Td`s in the single
digits to low teens. With this in mind, fire danger will need
monitored closely.

Looking long range, rain chances will be non-existent as influence
from ridging out west builds in, supporting dry conditions and
rapidly warming temperatures as highs enter the 80`s as early as
Thursday.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 16/00Z TAF period. A
narrow but broken line of strong to severe convection along a
strong cold front will quickly shift ESE across the remainder of
Deep E TX/N LA/SCntrl AR through mid-evening, exiting the MLU
terminal by 03Z. Cigs along/ahead of this convection will range
from 4-6kft, but strong wind gusts up to 45kts will be possible.
Behind the convection/front, cigs will quickly lift, with
AC/cirrus cigs increasing late this evening overnight, before
diminishing by/shortly after daybreak Monday. NW winds in wake of
the fropa will remain strong and gusty, with the strongest gusts
up to 40kts possible this evening through a portion of the
overnight hours before gradually weakening. NW winds 15-25kts with
gusts to 40kts this evening will weaken slightly to around 15kts
with gusts to 30 kts after 10Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Spotter activation will be needed this evening across portions of
Deep East Texas and North Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  37  50  31  59 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  37  50  29  56 /  80   0   0   0
DEQ  26  45  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  32  49  29  60 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  31  48  26  56 /  40   0   0   0
TYR  34  50  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  35  50  29  61 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  37  52  31  61 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-
     060-070.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ061-071>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     OKZ077.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ124>126-136>138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15